Leading Indicators of Consumption: The Role of GDP in Forecasting Department Store Sales
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18779/csye.v10i1.1087Keywords:
consumption, Economic indicators, prices, salesAbstract
This study analyzes the relationship between the Large Stores Sales Index (IVGS) and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Spain from 1965 to 2023, with the aim of exploring whether shared economic cycles exist. It is important to consider consumption as an economic indicator. The main objective is to determine whether GDP can be considered a leading indicator of consumption in different types of goods, such as Food and Other Goods. A quantitative, non-experimental,
and descriptive methodology was used, constructing a homogeneous series of deflated data derived from various statistical bases of the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE). The sample consists of monthly historical data on sales in large retail establishments.
The results show a strong correlation between GDP and the Total IVGS, with GDP acting as a predictor of overall consumption. The “Food” IVGS exhibits great stability throughout economic cycles, whereas the “Non-food” IVGS is much more sensitive to economic crises, with pronounced seasonal variations observed.
The findings indicate that GDP functions as a leading indicator of consumption, demonstrating that consumer behavior varies according to the economic context, thereby informing the design of public policies and various commercial strategies.
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