La contribución del capital público al crecimiento económico en Ecuador: evidencia empírica
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https://doi.org/10.18779/csye.v10i1.1243Palabras clave:
crecimiento económico, productividad total de los factores, contabilidad del crecimiento, equilibrio generalResumen
El presente artículo analiza la contribución del capital público al crecimiento económico del Ecuador durante el período 1960-2019, empleando un modelo de equilibrio general con una función de producción Cobb-Douglas ampliada para incluir el capital público como insumo adicional. A partir de la calibración de los parámetros estructurales utilizando datos de PWT11, Banco Central del Ecuador, FMI y el Investment and Capital Stock Dataset (2019), se estima la productividad total de los factores (TFP) y se realiza un ejercicio de descomposición del crecimiento siguiendo la metodología de Solow (1956) y la aproximación empírica propuesta por Torres-Chacón (2009). Los resultados indican que el capital público presenta una elasticidad del producto de 0,10 y contribuye en promedio con 0,40 puntos porcentuales al crecimiento anual del PIB, equivalente al 13 % del crecimiento total del país durante el período analizado. El capital privado constituye el principal determinante del crecimiento, mientras que la TFP exhibe alta volatilidad y episodios prolongados de contribución negativa, especialmente entre 1973 y 1999. El estudio muestra que el capital público complementa —y no sustituye— al capital privado, y que su impacto depende de la eficiencia de la inversión pública, la estabilidad macroeconómica y la calidad de la infraestructura. Los resultados obtenidos son consistentes con la evidencia internacional, particularmente con el caso español, y ofrecen implicaciones relevantes para el diseño de políticas orientadas al crecimiento sostenido y la mejora de la productividad.
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