The Paradox of overeducation: Is Educational Mismatch a Driver of Poverty in the Ecuadorian Labor Market?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18779/csye.v10i2.1299Keywords:
educational mismatch, poverty, labor market, human capital, EcuadorAbstract
Educational mismatch has been widely studied for its effects on income; however, its relationship with poverty remains limited, particularly in economies with segmented labor markets. This study analyzes the impact of overeducation and undereducation on the probability of poverty in Ecuador. Microdata from the 2025 ENEMDU are used, and a Logit model is estimated, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, human capital, and structural factors of the labor market. The results show that educational mismatches have a significant and asymmetric effect on poverty. Overeducation increases the risk of poverty, revealing the underutilization of human capital, whereas undereducation is associated with a lower probability of poverty. Likewise, formality and firm size substantially reduce this risk. The study concludes that education alone is not a sufficient mechanism for economic mobility. Its effect depends on the labor market’s capacity to adequately absorb human capital, which implies the need to complement educational policies with strategies aimed at strengthening labor demand.
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